No active weather in the region. Continuation of warm days and warmer than normal nights. Some mid level cloud during daytime.

There was a thunder shower this past Friday night which passed by to the south of Belmopan. I measured about 27mm of rain. This was the first thunder in several months. Today Sunday it is calm with a few clouds and still warm, even at night. The cold fronts are not pushing down this far south. The weather systems are drifting to the north instead.

Today was a very warm 30 C in the sun. Perfect weather to be outdoors in the garden. Warmer than normal for this time of year. First day of winter begins tonight. Right now at 10 PM the sky is clear with a temperature of about 21 C.

The weather system located in the SW Caribbean continues to affect Belize. There has been intermittent light rain since my last report. Most of today was warm with temperature of about 27C, however, it is much cooler this evening as a weak cold front approaches from the north. Tomorrow is expected to be overcast with some light rain.

The moisture mentioned previously has continued to push northward into Belize. There has been 25mm or 1 inch of rain over the past 36 hours. Showery weather should continue for the next few days.

The moisture to the south mentioned previously is just beginning to push into Belize. A few showers may develop tomorrow morning. Today was Santa Claus day in Belmopan. The weather was sunny and warm, a nice 27 C in the afternoon.

Weather in the area continues to be cool and dry with only low cloud. Winds are light from the north. There is a band of moisture slowly moving up from the south. Will report on this situation again in a few days. Meanwhile little change in the weather over Belize is expected.

Weather has been cool since my last report except now it has become warmer and more dry. There is very little active weather in the area at the moment but another cold front will be approaching later on Wednesday. More about this later.

First strong cold front of the season passed through Belize before midnight last night bringing with it heavy rainfall. I measured 59 mm or 2.3 inches. The front this morning is situated to the east of Belize.

Belize is now in a region of very dry air. The weather pattern is similar to what is found in the dry season. This pattern could last at least 10 more days.

Some showers passed through Belize around noon today. I measured 38 mm of rain. Wind calm and sky overcast during afternoon. There is no active weather in the region.

This morning Rina is just a tropical storm and weakening. I measured a rainfall here in Belmopan of only 16.5 mm or 0.65 in... It is now just after sunset here and a new path for Rina has already been issued. It is supposed to come to a stop and go in reverse and head south again towards Belize. But only as a tropical depression. Let's see what happens. Update: by Friday Oct 28, Rina weakened rapidly and just disappeared.

This is my final report on Rina. Rina is now smaller and weaker, almost down to just a Tropical Storm. The direction of the storm has 2 possibilities: move up to Florida or curve back over Cuba and move to the south. I will wait until Friday to see what happens. The weather in Belmopan right now is cool and cloudy. The nights have cool now for about a week, very unusual.

Rina is weaker this morning and will likely continue to weaken during the day.  There is a cold rain falling over Belize this morning. There is a light breeze blowing from the south west here in Belmopan. The wind feels cold and damp and very winter like.

Rina has slowly drift to the north west. There is a lot of cold dry air surrounding this system so in my opinion this hurricane is not going to do much damage. Will see what it looks like in the morning.

The tropical depression became a cat 1 hurricane today named Rina.
Forecast to move north west then north where it may encounter cooler, drier air. The threat to Belize seems minimal. Update in the morning.

A tropical depression has formed between Cuba and Honduras. Too soon to tell what this system is going to do. Does not look very significant at the moment. Update later.

First Cold front of season will be passing through Belize. Right now a cold light rain is falling. According to Ice Age Now, we may be in for a colder than normal winter. The La Nina has been gaining strength again.

The area of low pressure drifted to the north of Belize and weakened. The total rainfall that I measured form this system was only 1.7 inches or 42.6 mm. The weather should remain fairly calm for the next few days.

Rain from low clouds began before midnight last night and has continued intermittently to the present time. The low pressure is SE of Belize and drifting to the north west. the chance of a tropical depression forming now is low. There has been about 25 mm so far and a similar amount could be expected before the system passes.

The weather has been sunny and dry since my last report. However, things look like they are about to change. A broad area of Low Pressure is deepening just south of Belize. This system has the potential of producing heavy rainfall in the region over the next few days. The steering winds are erratic so what is going to happen over the coming few days is difficult to predict. Will make an update in the morning.

Since my last report, there has been showery weather the entire period. As of this morning the total rainfall since the beginning of October is just over 7 inches or 180 mm. This weather was due to a large High Pressure sitting over the eastern United States which caused a moist unstable NE air flow over the Yucatan. This afternoon October 8, much drier air moved into Belize.

There was more rain this morning beginning at sunrise and lasting till mid morning. received about 35 mm. So far this month the total rain is 2.3 inch or about 58 mm, a wet start to October. There is a potential for storm development in the south west Caribbean this time year.

This afternoon Belize is covered with rain showers. The steering winds over Belize at the moment are very light and erratic. The general motion during the day has been from SW to NE. Due to the slow movement of this system we could get up to 25 mm of rainfall.

Daytime heating set off some local thundershowers late this afternoon between 4 and 5 PM. Measured 23 mm rainfall here in Belmopan.

Something is approaching Belize? Not sure what this thing is going to do yet. seems to be evolving but into what. Will give an update in a couple of hours.

It is now 25 Sep. 2011 at 11:30 AM. The weather system shown completely vanished overnight and had no affect on Belize. The sky this morning was clear.

There was an additional 20 mm of rain during September 18 and 19 then dry air returned thereafter. Today is sunny and warm with a temperature of 30C.

A thunder storm developed overnight lasting from about 1 AM to 5 AM. It produced some locally heavy rainfall. At my location I measured 83 mm (3.3 inches) of rainfall. The ground here is now totally saturated. Any additional rain from now on is going to be a serious problem. There is a significant amount of moisture to the east of Belize which could bring more rain tonight.

The Tropical Wave westward motion slowed down over Belize Monday night. There was steady rain for most of the night followed by some showers during the day on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning the total accumulation of rain was measured at about 90 mm. The weather gradually cleared during the daytime on Wednesday.

The rain ended about 4:30PM and now it is overcast with low cloud. The tropical wave has pretty much dissipated. I measured for the 2 day period a total rainfall of 60 mm which was 11 mm more than my prediction. The weather should be fairly quiet for the rest of the week.

The most active weather remains in the Gulf of Honduras. This area of weather appears to be drifting to the north west rather than westward. Belize is receiving steady light rainfall. So far rainfall has exceeded the 49 mm I predicted and now stands at 55 mm. The rain should end by sunset with a few lingering showers overnight.

A tropical wave is approaching Belize. A Thundershower that began 30 minutes ago has just passed. The main area of stormy weather should arrive about 9PM local time. I am expecting only about 49 mm of rainfall from this system since the heaviest rainfall looks like it will pass to the south of this location. More about this wave in the morning.

Thundershowers have been forming along the Belize / Guatemala boarder then expanding outward in all directions. Right now, the eastern edge of a storm cell just passes through Belmopan. The showers bring a welcome relief to the high heat and humidity. The mid Caribbean is relatively dry with no storms present. Any rainfall around Belize over the next few days should be isolated. The above cell began to retreat around 4PM local time.

There has been no significant weather since my last report on TS Harvey. Only a few isolated brief thundershowers in the late afternoon or during the night. The heavy showers have occurred to the west of Belmopan.

Harvey_final report

The rain stopped about 50 minutes ago. The wind has died down to a light breeze from the west. Rainfall since 10AM was about 3.3 inches (84mm), total rainfall since yesterday was almost 5 inches (124mm). This rainfall brought the overall rainfall for August 2011 to about normal for the month.

Harvey 4

Harvey is now directly over Belize. Belmopan is experiencing some heavy rainfall right now. Some thunder was heard. The center of the storm appears to passing right near Belmopan. A strong breeze is blowing from the west so we must be on the south side of the center of the storm. More update soon.

Harvey 3

TS Harvey has remained active and is now approaching Belize. Rainfall will be quite heavy as the center of the storm moves inland. However, the strongest winds will affect only a small area and should not be more than 50 to 60 mph or 80 to 90 kph. Next report in 3 hours.

Harvey 2

A non-rotating cell has emerged. Such a cell can collapse just as fast as it formed. It could collapse and then re-form near Belize. If this happens then we could get a lot of rain. Will know by the morning. Last report for tonight.

Harvey

I doubt if Harvey will amount to very much at all, no where near as bad as anticipated. Something drastic will have to happen to make this TS turn into a monster.

I have been out of Belize from July 17 to Aug 18 and that is the reason there were no reports for this period. But I was following the weather here and it seems like it was fairly dry. However, a new storm has developed off the coast of Belize called Tropical Storm Harvey. We are having a shower from Harvey right now which should pass by soon. The main area of rain will arrive here late tonight. This storm should put an end to the drought. More Later. Don

All of the warnings at the beginning of the week for a major monsoon event at this time have failed to materialize. In fact just the opposite has occurred since the Caribbean region is now completely dry with very little rainfall anywhere. I am not surprised by this upset because the water vapor stream (TPW) off the coast of Africa had really dried out over the past week. However, the TPW stream off Africa right now is becoming more saturated and by this time next week Belize could see much wetter conditions. Don.

The tropical wave has had little impact on Belize. Measured only 4 mm last night, however, the southern part of the country had more rain. The wave sort of jumped over Belize and was repositioned further west. There is still a warning for the Monsoon trough to affect the country starting this weekend. I do not see any evidence of this happening yet.

The motion of the weather systems in the image is from 4 o'clock to 10 o'clock. The next system that could affect Belize tonight is down in lower right. This could bring another 22 mm of rain tonight. There is a tropical wave approaching, but it seems to have weakened over the past 12 hours. Will have a clearer picture of this later tonight. Don.

Weather Warning 2

Continuing the weather alert, a massive area of bad weather has developed in the western Caribbean. it is already beginning to affect Belize. Last night the rainfall measured 32 mm. Rain is falling at the present time. There should be a pause in the rain in a few hours, then even heavier rainfall tonight. I am predicting between 120 am 170 mm of rainfall. There could be some flooding in places.

Weather Warning

THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...

BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS...

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...POTENTIALLY GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

The  conditions described last night had drifted far enough west this morning to generate some showers over Belize, mainly in the south. Belmopan was on the northern fringe of the storm cell. Measured 12 mm of rain by 11AM. There could be some more showers later today or tonight.

Unusual Upper Air Pattern

In the Gulf of Mexico the rotation is cyclonic and over Florida it is anti-cyclonic. As a result, the upper air flow looks like an escalator, where the right hand side is moving down and the left hand side is going up. And in between the clouds are getting tossed all over the place. The whole system is slowly drifting westward. The area of stormy weather lies just south of the western end of Cuba. To soon to tell if there will be any affect on Belize.

There is an upper level anticyclonic circulation over the Caribbean centered south of Cuba which is rotating showers now in Honduras up towards Belize. These showers should start to affect Belize tonight. I would expect about 12.5 mm of rain by morning. Don

A storm cell (from old tropical wave) developed along the Belize / Guatemala border and expanded in all directions. There was not much rain associated with the cell due to the surrounding dry air. The weather systems to the east are drifting more to the North than to the west due to lower pressure near Cuba.

The image shows some activity developing east of Honduras. This could produce some showers over Belize later today. However I doubt if it will produce much rainfall due to lack of moisture in upper air.

This morning there was an extensive area of stormy weather in the south west Caribbean due to the presence of a tropical wave. But by 8:30 PM the system had all but disintegrated. It appears to me that the moisture has been drawn out and pulled eastward into the tropical wave further to the east.

The system to the south has been creeping north during the day. There is no rain at the moment but it could get closer as the night progresses. The dry air is still sitting out in the middle of the Caribbean. Right now it looks like the rain is winning. However, tropical storm Arlene in the Gulf of Mexico will likely attract most of the moisture leaving Belize with no rainfall at all.

 A chunk of the Saharan Air Layer is now right in the middle of the Caribbean (image right). The image below shows an area of showers extending in Honduras. So there is going to be a battle between these two systems. Will update this situation later today.

This is strange! A dust cloud from the African Sahara is approaching the eastern end of the Caribbean. Hope this does not mean a quick end to the rainy season!

In a previous report I mentioned that the tropical wave was poorly organized so what happened is that it broke up before reaching Belize leaving central Belize completely dry. The expected rainfall did not occur. But what is happening right now is that the upper air winds are beginning to shift. The direction is shifting from westerly to northerly. However it is too soon to tell if the shift is the start of the reversal. The westerly air flow is dipping far down into northern South America. This is not normal for this time of year.

Here is an example of the effect of the present wind shear pattern. Picture was taken facing south. The top of the cloud is being blow off to the east. This means that the wind shear is from the west. This is not normal for this time of year. The top should be pointing west, not to the east.

The tropical wave front has just reached the eastern tip of Honduras. It is making slow progress and is poorly organized. The upper section of the wave is encountering a heavy wind shear. The shear over Belize has become very light but still from the NW. The wave should show some development tonight as it approaches Belize.

The weather system discussed this morning has weakened during the day. There may be some showers before sunrise, however, heavy rain is not expected. I am predicting only about 38 mm of rain from this system.

There is a disturbance developing in the SW Caribbean that could start to affect Belize this weekend. It is forming ahead of a Tropical Wave. The limiting factor is that there continues to be a significant westerly wind shear above this disturbance. Will update this report later today.

After midnight a storm cell developed just south of Belize and moved straight north directly through the country. This morning I measured 1.76 in (44.7 mm) of rain. Should clear up by noon. The Caribbean is fairly quiet this morning. The rest of the week should see good weather.

The tropical wave has passed Belize and moved off to the west. My previous report predicted 4 inches of rain from this wave. This morning I measured 4.5 inches of rain or 116 mm. At the moment I am watching a disturbance just entering eastern Honduras. To soon to tell if it will expand north and affect Belize.

The tropical wave mentioned previously is beginning to affect Belize. A more extensive area of rain should move closer to Belize later today.
I am expecting about 4 inches of rain by the time the system clears late tomorrow. Will update this as conditions change.

Wet Weekend?

A complex weather system is developing. There is a pair of tropical waves approaching. The High Pressure to the north is moving off to the east. This should allow some wet weather to move in for the weekend. Also at this same time the Upper Air wind pattern is beginning to shift to the rainy season configuration. This combination of events should create some interesting weather over the next 4 days.