The closest tropical wave is currently at 82.7W and is slowing down as it approaches the eastern end of Honduras. The wind shear above the wave is very strong (the orange band) which is putting a lid on any convection. Therefore, I do not expect much in the way of rainfall from this wave, maybe only about 5 mm.
The Caribbean has become very dry for this time of year. The only significant rain is occurring down in the south west corner around Panama and southern Costa Rica. There are several Tropical Waves ( at 30W and 70W) but the northern ends of these are embedded in dry air with strong wind shear. The area off the east coast of Africa is also unusually dry so there is little moisture travelling from east to west across Africa. Also the sun is extremely quiet with a weak solar wind to stir things up here in this part of the world.
The weather has fairly quiet since my last report, however, a tropical wave is approaching which could start affecting Belize tonight. The problem is that the wind shear across Belize is quite strong and dry, and this could prevent the system from acquiring any significant development. The current position is at 16.84N and 84.75W will check on this system later today.
Between 1900 and 2045 Belmopan received a good soaking from a storm cell that developed over the central part of Belize. I measured almost 3/4 inch or 19 mm of rain over this period. Belmopan was on the northern edge of the cell. The cell should begin to break up after 2100 local time. The weather should remain unsettled for about 3 more days before a clearing tend sets in.
A Tropical Wave has passed to the south of Belize overnight producing frequent but brief showers. Measured 13 mm of rain due to this wave. This is the first wave from the Caribbean for 2014 to have a real affect on Belize. There is another wave due in about 3 days.
Hurricane Christina has strengthened to Cat 4 and is moving to the north west. The hurricane should begin to weaken soon as it heads to cooler water. Over in Belize, drier air has moved in from the north so this morning the sky is mostly clear with some low cloud. The tropical waves travelling over from Africa are weakening and staying far to the south so the chance of rain here is remaining low for the next few days.
Tropical Storm Christina is now located at 15.5N by 103.4W. A band of Thunder Showers formed from northwest to southeast across Belize between Belmopan and San Ignacio. Belmopan itself received only a trace of rain. This could be the result of one of the rain bands thrown off from Christina. Once again all the weather activity seems to be over on the Pacific side of Central America. The Caribbean side is showing little activity.
The Caribbean has been relatively storm free lately. Any rain has been flowing across from the Pacific side of the Caribbean. I my opinion the real rainy season has not actually arrived yet. The wind shear pattern across Belize is still that of the dry season.
A Low Pressure in the Pacific off Guatemala is throwing rain showers up towards Belize. There is a chance that this Low may develop into a Tropical Storm and move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Belize had 1/2 inch of rain last night.