Sunday, December 30, 2012

A poorly defined Cold front lies to the north of Belize and this triggered some late afternoon showers and into the early evening. Measured 6 mm of rain, just barely enough to dampen the ground.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

No rain today, just low clouds. The system mentioned previously has weakened and the chance of rain is now very low. The upper air contains little moisture so the future outlook for rain is not good.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

There is a broken trough from Cuba to Honduras that developed during the day but is moving westward very slowly. The cold front that was crossing the Gulf of Mexico seems to be dissipating. There could be some showers tonight. Will report in the morning.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

A new cold front has entered the Gulf of Mexico. It is now south of Brownsville Tx and does not show there because it is a dry line at this point. The string of clouds to the south of the front is not a front but high cloud in the upper air that is the southern boundary of the jet stream. At the moment, I do not see any significant rainfall as a result of this cold front which is not good news for farmers.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Cold Front crossed Belize after sunset Dec.21 along with a brisk north wind which lasted only a few hours. Ahead of the front there were some brief showers, here in Belmopan we got only 3 mm of rain. The upper air continues to be dry. Today the weather has been cloudy and quite cool. Only a trace of rain today.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

The region is still under the influence of dry air. There are only patches of low clouds that occasionally produce some light rain. There total for December so far is only 66 mm or 2.6 inches. The ground is abnormally dry for this time of year. Not a good sign for going into the dry season.

Monday, December 3, 2012

An area of low to mid level clouds cover the area today producing a few scattered showers. A shower in Belmopan before noon provided 8.5 mm of rain. The system is drifting to the SW very slowly. November was a dry month with only 75 mm of rain, well below normal. The sun continues to be relatively quiet with low solar wind speeds. November was quite cool mid month but warmed up towards the end of the month.

Monday, November 19, 2012

There was some light rain a week ago but none since then. Total rain so far this month only 1.5 inches. We are now under another weather block leaving Belize locked into very dry air. The days are sunny and warm and the nights are very cool under the clear sky. Solar activity has been unusually low for this period in the solar cycle.

Monday, November 12, 2012

There was some heavy rain on October 24 and this brought the total rainfall for October 2012 up to 377 mm or 14.8 inches. Since then the weather has been very quiet with very little rainfall. Total for November so far is only 30 mm. Right now watching a cold front crossing the Gulf of Mexico.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

At 5PM a little speck of a squall line dumped 19 mm on already wet Belmopan in 20 minutes. Total for month now almost 13 inches. Ground is saturated due to lack of hot sun and little wind for drying.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Actually the rain did not arrive until midday Sunday 21 Oct 2012. There was a heavy downpour around noon. Measured over 40 mm rain. There was no wind with the rain. Total so far this month ********* 11.9 inches.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

The moisture mentioned previously has arrived. Light Showers began around sunrise and are now becoming more heavy. The heaviest rainfall should arrive tonight.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Belize is back to dry weather for the past three days. This dry should continue until this weekend 21 Oct. 2012 when some moisture builds up in the southwest Caribbean. Rainfall so far this month is 227mm.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

There has been a lot of moisture around Belize over the past few days. Frequent showers occurred last night. At sunrise this morning I measured 41 mm. So far this month October 2012 rainfall is 7.9 inches. Seems to be making up for the lack of rain last month.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Belize is right now in a region of low and variable upper air steering currents and this is allowing for some isolated afternoon showers due to unstable moist conditions. The warm moist air is running up and over a weakening cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. This system should clear out by the weekend.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

We appear to be under the influence of a classic OMEGA block. The moisture to the east has been transported to the north leaving Belize in dry but unstable air with very little upper air circulation. Have no idea how long this block is going continue. Solar activity has been very low recently with weak solar wind. Update: A small storm cell developed around Belmopan about 2PM and produced a heavy shower that lasted 1 hour. Measured a rainfall of 1.8 inches. The cell dissipated quickly thereafter.

Monday, October 1, 2012

There is a small Upper Level Low just off the coast of Belize which seems to be blocking the westward movement of the weather to the east of this cell. This is keeping the sky over Belize clear. Total rainfall for September was only 90mm which is much below normal. The soil moisture is abnormally low.

Saturday, September 29, 2012

A High Pressure ridge is now producing clear sky across the Yucatan. The showers off to the east are slowly drifting westward and may simply dry up before reaching Belize. Will keep posted.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

An upper level trough developed off the east coast of Yucatan which produced some light rain over Belize. Measured about 12mm last night. This disturbance should weaken during the day.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Weather still extremely dry. Only 45mm so far in September. No storms are developing in the Caribbean. Not a good situation for the farmers. The showers a few weeks ago did not bring an end to the dry, in fact it is becoming more dry.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

The weather system mentioned previously has managed to push northward and is now producing some Thunder showers across Belize. In the past few hours the area of these showers has been expanding. This rain may be the ending of the dry period that we have been experiencing.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

A High Pressure ridge running SW to NE is keeping clear sky over Belize. There has been only a trace of rain since my last report. The area of showers to the south is attempting to move northward but is being blocked by the ridge. Will see what it looks like in the morning.

Saturday, September 1, 2012

The rainfall from the weather mentioned previously was only 9mm. The cell weakened rapidly after 9PM. Total rainfall for August 2012 was 263mm which is about Normal. We are now back in dry and windy weather with no sign of rain any time soon.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

The area of weather mentioned yesterday, intensified during the day and is now approaching the coast of Belize. This should not bring too much rain in our area, most of the rain is to the south in Honduras. Will know by morning about the rainfall.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

TS Isaac is losing strength as it moves inland along the north coast of the Gulf of |Mexico. Down here in Belize, the band of storm clouds that is the tail end of Isaac  has been disintegrating as it drifts west towards Central America. The expected rain from this may never reach the coast of Belize. The air is just to dry and stable. To add to the lack of any stormy weather is the fact that solar sunspot activity is very low.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Plenty of dry air between Central America and TD9 as shown at the far right of the image. I suspect that TD9 will most likely curve to the north west and stay well north of Belize. However it may bring along with it some rain clouds.

Saturday, August 18, 2012

Seems like tropical depression #7 mentioned previously brought along with it a lot of wide spread moisture that did not impact Belize until later this past week. There was rain both Thursday night (14mm)and last night (38mm). The heaviest rain last night was in southern Belize as shown in image. This brings the total August rainfall for my location 231.0 mm or 9.1 inches. This is more than normal since August is supposed to be a more dry month. The period going forward from now should be more dry.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

The leading edge of what is left of TD#7 has almost reached the coast of Belize. Once over land some thunderstorms could flare up along with some heavy rain showers. Will known what happens by this evening.

Monday, August 13, 2012

The remains of tropical depression 7 is slowly creeping westward. Will report on this system again later. So far in August I have measured 6.2 inches of rain (157mm). This brings the total for the year so far to 60 inches or 491mm. The distribution of the rainfall has been favourable to a productive growing season.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

The image shows the weather conditions at 3 AM last night. A heavy thunderstorm developed rapidly after midnight around the area of Belmopan. The storm lasted from just after 2 AM and continued to 4 AM. The rainfall measured 111 mm or 4.4 inches. There was some local flooding. This weather may be associated with Ernesto and is in the storms far eastern rain band. By 8 AM the storm had collapsed and disappeared.

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Ernesto crossed into Mexico before midnight last night north of the Belize border and is now at a position shown in the image. The weather in Belmopan last night was peaceful with a light drizzle, just a moderate breeze from the west. Rainfall from this storm so far has been 30mm which is about what I predicated yesterday morning. There may be some light rain today from the east rain band as seen in the image. This may be my last report on Ernesto.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Ernesto is now a Cat 1 hurricane and located northeast of Belize City and east of Chetumal Mx. Forecast to make landfall north of Chetumal. The outflow is now almost directly over Belize City as shown in image. Belmopan is receiving some rain showers due to the outer rain band to the west of the storm. However, I believe that Belmopan may get the heaviest rain from the east side of the storm once it moves inland. Will have to wait and see if this happens. The wind is very light at the moment.
Ernesto has gained some strength overnight and remains on the forecast track. Only the most northern part of Belize will be affected. Here in Belmopan there should not much affect at all, maybe just a strong breeze later today. Was hoping for more rain, but it looks like most of the rain is on the north side of the storm. We might get only about 25mm rather than the 50mm mentioned earlier. The storm is already north of Belmopan and well off the coast.

Monday, August 6, 2012

Very strange situation with Ernesto. The cloud pattern has become fragmented. Most of the storm area has blown off to the north and east of the centre of the storm. A new upper air outflow has formed just to the west of the centre. Not sure what is going to happen next. If there was no out flow then I would say the storm is going to weaken and perhaps break apart. But this new out flow is a puzzle. Will update in 3 hours. Update: There has been no significant change in the past 4 hours.
Right now Ernesto is off the north east coast of Honduras. The storm had been strengthening overnight but it appears to me that now it is weakening again. I might be wrong, but in my opinion, by the time it gets to Belize it will not be a hurricane by just a moderate tropical storm with winds of no more than 40 mph and produce about 50 mm of rain. I shall make an update this afternoon.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Ernesto has become totally disorganized. No more reports on this storm unless there is a sign of re-development. The outflow has weakened and has moved off the the southwest back towards Panama.

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Ernesto has been getting smaller over the past few hours with the out flow almost directly over top now. The upper air to the west of the storm is rotating counterclockwise and may be feeding dry air into the storm. It looks like the storm will move west then north west to pass north of Belize. At this time I do not think this storm will become a major threat.
This morning Tropical Storm Ernesto looks more threatening. The image on the right shows that an upper air outflow has moved northeastward closer to the centre of the storm. Late yesterday this upper air circulation was situated closer the east coast of Panama. A strong clockwise outflow over the top of a tropical storm is a good sign of the storm becoming stronger. Will update my observation this afternoon.

Friday, August 3, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto position at the present time along with steering layer. Too soon for me to make a prediction.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

More rain today. measured 29 mm. Total for month now 12.9 inches. There will be a brief dry spell but then the large tropical wave shown in image is headed this way for later this week. The Saharan air layer has been shrinking recently so we may be in for a spell of wetter weather.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

The latest tropical wave that passed through Belize on Sunday and Monday left behind about 4 inches 0f rain. This brings the total rainfall so far for July at 11.7 inches or almost 300 mm. This rainfall is fairly normal for this time of year. There has been no significant flooding since the rainfall has been well spread out over the period so there was not a lot of rain at one time. Another but weaker tropical wave is approaching which should reach here Thursday.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

The Upper Low mentioned previously has disappeared overnight and the weather is calm this morning. Rianfall measured to be 12 mm most of it falling between 1900 and 2000 hr local time.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

An Upper Level Low (see right) near Cancun Mx is setting off some stormy weather starting about 1800 hr.
At the moment we are getting mostly strong winds but only light rain. Will make a report in the morning.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

The weather system shown in the previous report deteriorated overnight and did not produce the heavy rain indicated. However, it still managed to affect Belmopan as it passed up the coast of Belize. There were some showers overnight and then a period of wind and rain around 10 AM. Total rainfall from the system measured almost 25mm. The weather behind this tropical wave is hot and dry. The total rainfall so far for July is 118 mm or 4.6 inches.

Saturday, July 7, 2012

The last in a series of tropical waves is approaching. This one appears to be the strongest in the series. Could bring some heavy rain tonight. Will update later today.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

For the month of June 2012 I measured 247 mm or 9.7 in of rain, most of this at the beginning of the month and mid month. The last week of the month was more dry than normal. For my location I considered the rainfall below normal for June. The soil at the end of the month was hard and dry. I have not yet done any planting of seed due the fact that I have been predicting a dry spell since the area between the Caribbean and Africa was filled with dry, dusty Saharan air and it was moving towards Central America. Today the Caribbean is still extremely dry as shown in the water vapour image. There is a wave in the lower right that is approaching and may bring some showers by mid week.

Monday, June 25, 2012

Total rainfall so far this month 244 mm or 9.6 in The weather has now become considerably more dry. The region between here and Africa is extremely dry (see image). Not sure where the next rain will be coming from.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Some thundershowers in Belmopan last night. Measured 9 mm of rain. Total rainfall so far for June is 8.6 inches or 217 mm. Cause of the unstable weather is the proximity of the Monsoon trough of low pressure. The low pressure is actually at surface. There is currently an upper high over the area with a clockwise circulation so that the high cloud is moving in from the NE rather than from the west. Meanwhile the eastern Caribbean continues to be under the influence of dry air from Africa.

Sunday, June 17, 2012

The monsoon trough is now running up the west coast of Central America. Also a trough of low pressure has formed off the east coast. Last night an area of rain moved northward along the coast of Belize. A storm cell must have formed over Belmopan and I measured 66 mm (2.6") of rain this morning which was a surprise since I did not hear any heavy rain all night. Conditions in the Caribbean have changed dramatically over the past 36 hours. The dry air is rapidly being replaced with rain clouds.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Thundershowers last night from 0200 to 0500 hr with 36 mm of rain or 1.4 inches. This weather system followed almost the same pattern as previous. That is, developed in the southwest corner of Belize and moved northeast just south of Belmopan. The storm was triggered by the passage of a Tropical wave moving in from the Caribbean across the Yucatan. This wave is now dissipating as High Pressure builds to the north in the Gulf of Mexico. On the Pacific side is TS Carlotta which is heading north but may get pushed to the west by the building High in the Gulf.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

This image shows that there are no storms headed this way. The mid Atlantic is covered with dry and dusty air from Africa. The weather here should remain more dry than normal for the foreseeable future. Any showers will be isolated. Rainfall is being suppressed.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

A tropical wave is approaching allowing the area of rain to expand northward. We are already beginning to experience the effect with a light shower at 4:20PM. There should be more rain tonight and tomorrow as the wave moves closer. However, Saharan dust from West Africa will be suppressing any significant development.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

The Caribbean in general continues to be dry including Belize. Becomes more dry the further up towards the northern part of the Yucatan. Most of the rain is concentrated down to the southern part of Central America especially around Costa Rica. Any rain in Belize will be from isolated showers and would occur mainly around midnight.

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

There was a repeat of the same weather pattern of the past few weeks. A thunderstorm developed overnight in the SW of Belize (2 to 3 AM) and moved north east between Belmopan and the coast. Measured 24 mm of rain. By mid morning of June 6 the storm had disappeared. The Caribbean basin itself continues to be very dry.

Monday, June 4, 2012

Dry air from High Pressure has almost reached the Yucatan. There still could be a few showers however the amount of rainfall should be limited due to the higher pressure.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

The area of dry is now closer however there is still a lot of moisture surrounding Central America which could set off some afternoon thundershowers similar to yesterday. The clockwise circulation around the Caribbean High Pressure is feeding the moisture northward into the Yucatan as shown in image below.

Saturday, June 2, 2012

Another T-Shower developed over Belmopan this afternoon dumping more rain, I measured 22mm. This rain still due to the same weather pattern of last month. The dry air now in the Central Caribbean has not yet arrived but is getting closer.

Friday, June 1, 2012

There is a large area of hot dry dusty air headed westward towards the Caribbean as shown in the blue in the image. This could mean that the month of June here may be more dry than May, at least for the first half of June. I am going to delay any planting of seed until this African dry air is replaced with some Tropical Waves.