Thursday, June 27, 2013

The Caribbean is lacking any moisture right now. Not sure how the next weather system is going to develop. The air flow off the west coast of Africa is quite dry and dusty right now. We could be returning to a drought condition. I am still holding back on doing any planting in my garden, just doing weed control.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

The weather system mentioned previously, named TD2, produced a 48 hour total rainfall of 5.8 inches or 148 mm . This was more rain than the 2-3 inches originally forecast for the tropical wave only. Did not anticipate the formation of a tropical depression which passed directly over Belize along with the wave.

Monday, June 17, 2013

The weather system described a few hours ago seems to become almost stationary and is dumping far more rain on Belmopan than expected. Plus a new storm cell is forming off shore SE of Dangriga.
The remains of Tropical Depression 2 now producing heavy rain over the northern half of Belize. The rain should soon start to taper off in the Belmopan area. By morning the weather system should have moved out the area. Will report on the total rainfall for TD2 in the morning.
A Tropical Depression has formed along the previously mentioned Tropical Wave. Continuous moderate rain now falling on Belize. Forecast to continue for the next 36 hours.

Saturday, June 15, 2013

The tropical wave is now approaching Belize. Should reach here tomorrow morning. Once over Belize the wave may slow down and produce several days of rainy weather. This may be the last good rain for several weeks because the air behind this wave is quite dry all the way to Africa. I am predicting 2 to 3 inches from this wave over a period of 3 days.

Friday, June 14, 2013

We have been under the influence of a High Pressure ridge today, however, it now appears that a Tropical Wave is headed towards Central America and Belize. There is a fairly strong upper level outflow at the base of this wave. Going to keep a close watch on this one.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

QUIET SUN: With the sunspot number dropping to almost zero, solar activity is very low. No strong flares are expected today. The solar wind is at 401 km/s. Weather is sunny with a few light scattered showers.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

A thunder shower formed around Belmopan last night with rain between 0300 and 0500 hrs, measured 31 mm. There was also a larger area of showers in the southern part of Belize. Otherwise, the Caribbean basin itself is relatively dry.

Monday, June 10, 2013

The Caribbean side of Central America is relatively dry compared to the Pacific side. We are in a blocking pattern which is vaporizing any tropical waves moving westward off Africa. Not sure how long this is going to last. The solar storms on the sun have all died down so the sun has once again become very quiet. My prediction of a dry June for the Belmopan area of Belize still holds. Already 1/3 through June and have measured only 12 mm of rain.

Monday, June 3, 2013

Light rain last night, only 3mm from system moving SW to NE up the coast of Belize. The image on the right indicates the TPW ( potential for rain) the black band nearly follows the Monsoon trough. The solar wind yesterday reached over 750 km/s but this morning is down to 660 km/s. There looks to be drier weather headed this way. I am going to make a wild prediction that the rainfall for June could be less than the total for May.

Saturday, June 1, 2013

A large storm cell did develop. It formed in Mexico as shown in image. There was only some high cloud in Belmopan. The storm cell should disappear overnight.
Conditions appear favourable for some sort of weather development over Belize during the next few days. The Solar Wind has already begun to increase and has doubled in the past 36 hours. It is now up to 640 km/s, similar to last weekend. The surface circulation is CCW and there is a CW outflow above this. The wind shear is much lower compared to last weekend. All this adds up to something brewing in the atmosphere.