Hurricane Richard

Kindly disregard everything I said about "RICHARD" in my previous reports.

Hurricane Richard did not weaken as expected once making landfall. Instead it remained a category 1 hurricane, becoming smaller in diameter and more intense. It created a narrow path of destruction thorough the center of the country. Belmopan experience hurricane force winds October 24, from about 7:45PM to 11:45 PM with the eye of the storm passing over around 9:30PM.

I do not have any weather map pictures due to the fact that the electrical power failed at the same time as the hurricane arrived.

Hurricane Richard

Richard has just barely made it to becoming a hurricane while about 90 miles east of the coast of Belize.
At this time the weather in Belmopan overcast but no rain. The wind is light from the west.
Right now it appears that the storm is becoming more ragged with the clouds on the north side becoming less dense. The wind field is very small and should affect only a small area of the coast with winds of 80 to 90 kph.
The wind should drop rapidly once the storm moves inland. Damage if any should be minimal.
I doubt if the rainfall will be as high as predicted (4 to 6 inches). Here in Belmopan we will lucky to get even 2 inches. Wind will be of no concern here.

Richard

As predicted in my previous report, tropical storm Richard is now breaking apart.

Belize may experience a few thundershowers tonight but nothing unusual for this time of year.

Richard is a very small storm and may not last much longer as it is impacted by the proximity to land.

TS Richard Friday Night

Here is my current prediction for Richard:
This storm is going to break apart and the pieces will drift around until almost nothing is left of this storm. I do not agree with any of the conventional forecasts.
Why? There is no halo around the moon tonight. The solar activity is very low. The outflow centre has drifted well to the south of the storm. Dry air from Belize is being sucked into the west side of the storm. The upper air around the storm is electrically inactive. The surface air pressure is too high.

TS Richard

The Richard system has elongated and connected with moisture over Costa Rica. Also the centre of outflow has shifted slightly to the east of Richard. Plus there is a dome of very dry air over Belize and surrounding area. All these factors are hampering the formation of Richard becoming a hurricane. My prediction at this time is that Richard will just wander around for awhile then dissipate, allowing a new system to develop east of Richard.

Richard

Here is my prediction for TS Richard:

Based on the fact that the Sun is fairly quiet, I think Richard will not develop into anything except a disorganized cluster of showers.

Will update later today.

No Rain

So far this month there has been only 7 mm of rain. We are in drought conditions.

Weather systems that form in the southwest Caribbean, are moving north then swinging northeast.

No rain is moving westward towards Belize.

The Caribbean is under the influence of another Omega Block.

Except for what is left of Paula located at the western tip of Cuba, the Caribbean (including Belize) is clear.

Paula has moved north as I predicted last night, and has become smaller. The anticyclone centre has moved far to the southeast so Paula is being subjected to a strong southerly wind shear.

Belize will get no rain at all from this storm. Not good news for the farmers.

This morning the sky is clear.

Tropical Storm Paula formed this afternoon.

The storms outflow is located off to the northeast of the center of the storm and this should act as an anchor on its movement and cause the storm to move more towards the north rather than to the west.

Belize may only experience a few showers, drifting off from the extreme western edge of the system.

The low pressure trough is still stuck between Cuba and Panama. It refuses to move toward Central America.

The weather over Belize remains cool and dry.

The OMEGA block previously mentioned is finally breaking down allowing a band of light showers to approach Central America. I do not expect any significant rainfall from this system.

In general the weather making systems in the Caribbean are very weak. Geophysical activity is low and the sun is clear of any sunspots. Therefore, there is nothing out there to stir up a big storm.

The Caribbean is still under the influence of an "Omega" block.
Weather systems are pretty much stationary.
This block is making it sort of difficult for any hurricanes to form and move towards Central America.
The chances of Belize getting hit by a hurricane this year are becoming more remote by the day.

The weather over the past 2 days has been uneventful.

Just a nice cool westerly breeze and dry air. great weather for working outdoors.

We are in a weather block over the Caribbean basin where systems are not moving very much. Just forming and collapsing over the same area. Going to see what happens tomorrow.