All of the warnings at the beginning of the week for a major monsoon event at this time have failed to materialize. In fact just the opposite has occurred since the Caribbean region is now completely dry with very little rainfall anywhere. I am not surprised by this upset because the water vapor stream (TPW) off the coast of Africa had really dried out over the past week. However, the TPW stream off Africa right now is becoming more saturated and by this time next week Belize could see much wetter conditions. Don.

The tropical wave has had little impact on Belize. Measured only 4 mm last night, however, the southern part of the country had more rain. The wave sort of jumped over Belize and was repositioned further west. There is still a warning for the Monsoon trough to affect the country starting this weekend. I do not see any evidence of this happening yet.

The motion of the weather systems in the image is from 4 o'clock to 10 o'clock. The next system that could affect Belize tonight is down in lower right. This could bring another 22 mm of rain tonight. There is a tropical wave approaching, but it seems to have weakened over the past 12 hours. Will have a clearer picture of this later tonight. Don.

Weather Warning 2

Continuing the weather alert, a massive area of bad weather has developed in the western Caribbean. it is already beginning to affect Belize. Last night the rainfall measured 32 mm. Rain is falling at the present time. There should be a pause in the rain in a few hours, then even heavier rainfall tonight. I am predicting between 120 am 170 mm of rainfall. There could be some flooding in places.

Weather Warning

THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...

BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS...

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...POTENTIALLY GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

The  conditions described last night had drifted far enough west this morning to generate some showers over Belize, mainly in the south. Belmopan was on the northern fringe of the storm cell. Measured 12 mm of rain by 11AM. There could be some more showers later today or tonight.

Unusual Upper Air Pattern

In the Gulf of Mexico the rotation is cyclonic and over Florida it is anti-cyclonic. As a result, the upper air flow looks like an escalator, where the right hand side is moving down and the left hand side is going up. And in between the clouds are getting tossed all over the place. The whole system is slowly drifting westward. The area of stormy weather lies just south of the western end of Cuba. To soon to tell if there will be any affect on Belize.

There is an upper level anticyclonic circulation over the Caribbean centered south of Cuba which is rotating showers now in Honduras up towards Belize. These showers should start to affect Belize tonight. I would expect about 12.5 mm of rain by morning. Don

A storm cell (from old tropical wave) developed along the Belize / Guatemala border and expanded in all directions. There was not much rain associated with the cell due to the surrounding dry air. The weather systems to the east are drifting more to the North than to the west due to lower pressure near Cuba.

The image shows some activity developing east of Honduras. This could produce some showers over Belize later today. However I doubt if it will produce much rainfall due to lack of moisture in upper air.

This morning there was an extensive area of stormy weather in the south west Caribbean due to the presence of a tropical wave. But by 8:30 PM the system had all but disintegrated. It appears to me that the moisture has been drawn out and pulled eastward into the tropical wave further to the east.