The sun has bee very active over the past few days. THE NEXT THREE DAYS: Solar activity remains high. Sunspot AR1882 is crackling with M-class solar flares and poses a threat for more X-flares. The sun is turning this sunspot toward Earth. Over the next three days (Oct. 26-28), a series of CMEs created by the recent limb eruptions will deliver glancing blows to Earth's magnetic field, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms.

Moisture is still being trapped under a upper level anticyclone circulation and produced more rainfall last night, measured 2.35 inches or about 60 mm. The ground is now very saturated. There is clearing taking place starting in the south and moving north.

Heavy rainfall last night around Belmopan, measured 124 mm, total so far since yesterday is 6.2 inches or 157 mm. There is an upper air anticyclone circulation centred in southern Mexico setting up a block and uplifting the moisture flowing inland along the coast. The cold front remains just north of the Yucatan. The rain should be decreasing during today due to reduced convection.

Seems like the cold front to the north has approached closer to Belize than expected. The previously mentioned tropical wave looks like it is colliding into the southern CW outflow from the cold front and generating some active weather over the land area. This is generating some significant rainfall. Also! SOLAR FLARE! Solar activity is high. On October 24th at 00:30 UT, Earth-facing sunspot AR1877 erupted, producing a powerful M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast: This could have helped trigger the development of the weather system.

The air to the east of Belize is still pretty dry (yellow area). A tropical wave is approaching but the top end of it has very little moisture. To the north is the remains of a cold front soon to be reinforced by a fresh outbreak of colder air in the southern States. Belize may get some rain but probably not very much due to lack of strong convection.

Since the 22nd of September there has been only 43 mm of rain. A large upper air cell of High Pressure has been sitting over the central Gulf of Mexico keeping the area around the Yucatan dry for the past 3 weeks. This cell has finally started to collapse allowing more moist air to flow into the NW Caribbean. Will follow this change in air mass to see if there is a return to rainy weather.

The area of active weather has drifted to the north west, with only a slight affect on Belize. Measured only about 13 mm of rain. Weather should improve over the next few days.

Back to updating this blog again. Was in Canada from August 15 to September 11 so missed experiencing the wet weather here in Belize during my absence. Rainfall records show that there has been almost 2 feet of rain here in Belmopan since August 14, 2013. Now watching the area of active weather off the north east coast of Honduras. Will report on this disturbance in the morning.

Band of thunder showers moving across central Belize including Belmopan area. Last night the Belmopan area received almost 40 mm of rain and the rain right now is going to add to this. Will report again later today.

The western Caribbean is very low in water vapour at the moment. Belize is dry. Rainfall for July was well below normal at only 182 mm and so far in August only 10 mm. There is a tropical wave forming in the far eastern Caribbean which I will be following over the next few days.