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The upper level trough has moved south and east and is now further away from Belize. Belize remains dry with most of the active weather down in the Panama area. The polar circulation has change very little over the past 4 days, The CW rotation is at 77.3 N / 105.4 W and the the CCW near Siberia at 64.0 N / 73.9 E.

There has been an increase in the moisture in the Caribbean. An upper air trough of Lower Pressure is forming as shown in the lower left image. An increase in convection is expected over the next few days. The Sahara air off Africa is weakening.
Polar Circulation update: The CW High Pressure is dominating again and has rotated back again towards the North Pole. Now centered at 75.8 N / 100.8 W. A strong active cold front is pushing down from Canada. Severe weather warnings issued.

The total rainfall from last report weather system due to cold front was 70 mm which is quite a lot of rain for this time in the dry season. Now Belize is back in the dry again as seen in the water vapour image. Meanwhile there has been a big change in the polar circulation. The CW loop has become much weaker and moved off to the north and west while the larger CCW loop and now got a double centre and has expanded. This looks like there will be colder than normal temperature for Canada over the coming week.

Around 1340 hr a large area of rain showers passed through the central part of Belize. Belmopan experienced a fairly heavy rain shower along with gusty winds. There was about 9 mm in 15 minutes. The tail end of the cold front must be stirring up some active weather.

The lower circle is the CW rotation which is continuing to dominate while the old CCW over in Siberia continues to struggle.
The cold front crossed Belize Friday night and stalled east of Honduras. The front is now beginning to dissipate. Since Friday night, here in Belmopan I measure about 52 mm of rain which is pretty significant for this time of year. We don't normally get such a strong cold front this late in March.

A strong Cold Front is approaching the Yucatan. This may bring some significant rainfall to Belize. To soon to determine how much rain.
The CW polar circulation continues to strengthen. Now cemtred at 67.8 N / 117.8 W
Eastern Canada is still unseasonably cold.

The polar circulation is definitely beginning to make a big change. The change seems to be in step with the spring equinox. The winter time CCW pattern is fading away while the summer time CW pattern is beginning to dominate.
The Caribbean continues to be very dry, there is no sing of rain anywhere at this time.

There has been little change in the Caribbean with respect to the low level of water vapour.
However, there is a big change occurring in the polar circulation. The larger CCW rotation is still close to Siberia, while the CW rotation near Alaska is becoming significantly larger. Only the eastern part of Canada is experiencing cold weather.

High cloud from the Pacific side is flowing northward across Belize. Low level cloud is moving in from the Gulf of Honduras across southern Belize but no rain due to the upper air being very dry.
The polar circulation has moved further into Siberia, now centred at 72.2 N / 100.2 E. This is putting the jet stream further north now, more over the Great Lakes and New England. The southern states is now much warmer.

There was some significant showers last night around Belmopan from 0230 to 0430. Measured about 12 mm rainfall. The yellow arrow points at the low cloud system responsible for the rain. The system was amplified by a weak trough passing across the Yucatan.
The CCW polar circulation is continuing to strengthen. Now centred at 86.6 N and 174.8 W and very close to the North Pole. This will produce some below normal temperatures across Canada.

The polar circulation is changing again this time more like returning to a winter time pattern rather than shifting to spring time. The centre is at 84.6 N / 154.0 W. This could mean that North America could plunge back into cold again after a few weeks of milder temperatures.
The Caribbean is still dry. The showers predicted in my last report did not occur.

 There is a cluster of showers moving into the Gulf of Honduras and this may generate a few showers overnight in Belize. There is a cold front cutting across the Gulf of Mexico which will most likely stall and move back as a warm front. I am expecting only about 4 to 5 mm rain in Belize tonight most likely before sunrise.

The Caribbean basin has had a noticeable increase in the level of water vapour. Belize has been experiencing a few light showers during the hours before sunrise. There was 4 mm of rain last night. There has been a significant change in the upper air polar circulation. The CCW rotation is smaller in size and is more in a east-west orientation. This is allowing much milder air to flow across the US and southern Canada.

The southern Caribbean basin is extremely dry (shown as black in the image). The polar circulation is beginning to change. It is swinging off the east coast of Canada. The western side of North America is experiencing warmer temperature and the east is not as cold as it was a few days ago. The record breaking cold may be over for now.

Its the last day of February and North America is still dominated by Arctic Air. The polar and jet stream pattern has remained virtually unchanged over the entire month. The Caribbean as shown in the water vapour remains extremely dry. The lower images show a cold front as of last night and on the right the same cold front today which has not moved and will now likely just disappear or retreat back to the north as a warm front. Seems like the Earth's weather systems get locked into a pattern and just sit in one place for extended periods of time. This is not a good sign. The planet's atmosphere needs to be dynamic to be healthy.

The images show the upper air at 10 mb pressure level. The red arrow is the boundary between the North and South hemispheres. The green arrow in the south is the direction of the circulation. The upper right is South pole where there is very light winds. The lower left is the north pole where the circulation has changed very little during the month of February. The large CCW center is at 81.2 N / 7.3 W and the small CW circulation on the west coast of NA  is now at 56.4 N / 134.3 W . The pattern has resulted in continuous record breaking cold in the east and above normal temperature in the west. The Caribbean in now getting warmer and continues to be very dry. The trade winds are beginning the get stronger.

The cold front passed through Belize overnight with just a trace of light rain. This morning is cool and cloudy. The red line shows the final position of the front where it will dissipate on Friday. Eastern North America is experiencing record cold. The cold CCW polar circulation has been expanding and is now at 77.7 N / 68.6 E and elongated while the warmer High cell has weakened and moved back more towards Alaska at 49.4 N / 160.7 W this is allowing the cold arctic air to invade far to the south and spread further west.

The Cold Front is shown by the yellow line. There is a minor wind shift line as show by the red line. The cold front will bring a sharp drop in temperature beginning on Thursday. The night may remain cloudy so the nighttime temperature may not be too cold. The polar circulation has changed very little so eastern North Am remains extremely cold, even record cold in some places.

A new Cold front has just entered the Gulf of Mexico. The front is suppose to reach Belize sometime Wednesday night. We should be getting some hot daytime temperature before the front arrives then much cooler the following day.