A tropical wave has intensified over Central America p[producing frequent showers with some thunder. Have measured 29 mm rain since last night. The main storm centre is over Honduras. Weather should clear after this system passes. There is a small upper low over Jamaica.

There is currently a band of moisture stretching across the mid section of Belize. This is resulting in a Thunder Shower taking place between 2000 and 2030 local time. To the east there is a tropical wave at 84.1W from 22.5N down to 10.0N with a 4 way convergence at 17.9N, 81.2W as noted by the 250 mb wind flow. There may be some unsettled weather tomorrow due to the TW before the dry returns.

This morning Spaceweather report "STRANGE SITUATION: In the middle of Solar Max, the sun has slipped into a state that resembles Solar Minimum. Sunspot numbers are low; the sun's X-ray and radio output are depressed; and NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of solar flares during the next 24 hours."

The Saharan Air is like a fiery dragon devouring any moisture headed this way. The rainy season may be over for now. And up in the central part of North America another outbreak of polar air is ready to invade making it fell more like October rather then the end of July. “NWS Cleveland, Ohio, says the overall pattern is like what we saw over the winter time (and is more typical for winter, not summer),”

There is a CCW upper air circulation centred at 16.4N 78.0W which is a region south of Jamaica. This is associated with a Tropical wave. However, there is very little moisture associated with this system. The water vapour all the way east to Africa is lower than normal for this time of year. The Saharan Air Layer is still a dominant factor in the Caribbean. There is an upper air Low at 6N 42W which I need to keep watching for the next few days.

The Upper Level CCW circulation has shifted to the west and is now located at 19.5 N and 81.7 W this has pushed the tropical wave just passed Belize and is now crossing Guatemala. The storm cell on this wave expanded rapidly this morning producing a series of thunder showers over Belize, mainly south and central. Have measured 12 mm of rain due to this wave. The rainfall was limited due to the fact that the air feeding down from the north was fairly dry. The next wave due in 2 days could produce greater rainfall.

The Saharan Air Layer is becoming more fragmented. The real rainy season may be getting ready to arrive. There is an upper air CCW circulation near the eastern end of Cuba. However it is nor carrying that much moisture over Belize as yet. Moisture is indicated by the blue colour. We should start to see an increase in moisture over Belize sometime Sunday.

A weak tropical wave is approaching and is now just reaching the eastern end of Honduras. Belize may experience a few showers from this wave tomorrow. Thereafter,

A FAIRLY LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR A FEW DAYS.

The rainfall in Belmopan early last night was measured to be 2.7 inches or 68 mm Belmopan appears to have received more rain than the surrounding areas. The tropical wave had passed well to the west by midnight. Today was mostly sunny with fair weather clouds. The Caribbean basin is mostly dry with the Saharan Air Layer covering most of the eastern region.

The Tropical Wave has become very active this evening. A storm cell is passing very close to Belmopan right now and producing a significant rainfall. Will give the measurement in the morning.

A Tropical Wave is passing through Belize at the moment. The wind shear has become very light allowing an increase in convection. A thundershower is occurring right now at 10:15 this morning. However, to the east of this wave the area is still dominated by a large Saharan air mass as shown in the TPW image. Therefore, once this wave has passed, Belize should be right back into dry air again.